Time Runs Out On Niger Delta
By Kunle Sanyaolu
JUST when peace looms in the Niger Delta following reported meetings between the Federal Government and the region´s militants, something snapped again. And we may be back to square one, or something worse. For the first time since the struggle in the oil-rich section, the country is reported to have run out of crude oil to service the local refineries. One moment, the hope was bright. The next moment, there is no hope. This minute, militants are embracing government´s amnesty. The next minute, they say it was all media hype, and that they harbour no such intention as surrendering their arms. The militants even wrote to visiting Russian President, Dimity Medvedev, warning him to steer clear of any deal with the Nigerian government on the Niger Delta. Yet everyone agrees that we need peace in the region for the country to move forward. One is tempted to wonder aloud whether this is the beginning of the end. If we all run out of ideas, and the situation goes from bad to worse, what else can it be if not the beginning of the end. But the end is still largely unpredictable.
The Niger Delta is fast turning into a stalemate arising from complications. It is a situation that will do no one any good, least of all people of the region. Already, they have gone through a lot. Will there ever be respite? It is clear that military options are not likely to yield positive results, at least not immediately. It may not yield positive result in the long run because attempt to address criminality is bound to bruise other bodies and souls. Nevertheless, one can hardly fault government´s decision to go all out. The anguish being unleashed by kidnappers and other criminals on innocent citizens is as bad as that being suffered by the civil populace caught in the soldiers-militants crossfire. All hope seemed rested on President Umaru Musa Yar´Adua´s amnesty offer. If the offer fails to bring lasting peace, it may indicate that some people prefer war in the Niger Delta. But time is running out for the country, particularly after government admitted that the Warri and Port Harcourt Refineries have been shut because there was no more crude for them. The Kaduna Refinery that has not been shut down is nothing but a lame dog, since it depends on supply from the Warri plant. The only stock, reserved, will be exhausted in the next two weeks, according to Group Managing Director of Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), Mohammed Sanusi Barkindo. This is a direct result of militants´ offensive in sabotaging activities of oil companies operating in the zone. In the last three weeks, the militants struck four times, destroying facilities belonging to Shell, Chevron and Agip.
It is a bit curious that only 24 hours earlier to the announcement of the shutting of Port Harcourt and Warri Refineries, the country was regaling in the thinking that truce was coming at last. This thinking was anchored on the reported meeting of top government officials and militants´ leaders aimed at creating a blueprint for peace. The meeting took place at the Police Officers Mess in Port Harcourt. Their leaders represented the militants, while counsel represented Movement for the Emancipation of Niger Delta (MEND).
Minister of Interior, Maj.-Gen. Godwin Abbe and the Inspector General of Police, Mr. Mike Okiro led government´s representatives. The only fear, though a major one, expressed at the meeting is that government should be genuinely committed to the militant´s safety, besides addressing the core issues that prompted the Niger Delta struggle. At the end of the three-hour meeting, hope was high that once the president proclaims his offered amnesty, attacks on oil facilities in the region would cease. Exchanges at the meeting were said to be frank. Considering the series of efforts that have been previously directed at finding peaceful solution to the crisis, the point of the Port Harcourt meeting was significant. It marks a stage that can be appropriately described as a watershed. After eight years of President Obasanjo, all efforts at stemming the unrest came to nought. Government at the time raised derivation from oil exploitation to 13 per cent for the producing states. It also created the Niger Delta Development Commission or increased its funding. However, agitation became more intensified as government´s efforts were considered inadequate and even insincere in resolving the area´s fundamental problems. Yar´Adua went further in the last two years, creating the Niger Delta Ministry, the Niger Delta Technical Committee and lately, offering amnesty. Militants are expected to surrender themselves and their arms, agree to stop violent agitation and begin a new life. Again, this has not worked, as the militants are making a volteface regarding their reported adoption of the amnesty.
As the search for truce gets more elusive, the destruction in the Niger Delta gets more massive. Apart from constant destruction of pipelines, the director, Chevron/NNPC Joint Venture, Supo Shadiya reported that his company had incurred more losses than ever since the beginning of last May 13 military operations. In particular, he spoke of the firm´s wells in MKB-5 and Apiteye-1, both of which had been vandalised, while fire is raging in the latter since June 13. Said Shadiya: ”We have not been able to put off the fire because we cannot. The integrity of the well has been compromised and we don´t have the facility to control it...” The situation is certainly pathetic, and there is every indication that it will get worse. If it does, it will be the mother of stalemates. Naturally however, government remains optimistic with officials hinting that the president´s amnesty package would pave way to lasting peace. The amnesty was comprehensive enough as it sought to allay the militants´ fears. But it was also specific on its terms. It is open to all militants for 60 days (till October 4) irrespective of charges or allegations against them. In return, militants are to give up all illegal arms in their possession, renounce militancy and sign an undertaking to that effect. Government is convinced that the crisis would soon be resolved and that after 60 days, anyone breaching the peace in the Niger Delta cannot be regarded as anything but a criminal. President Yar´Adua expects peace by December. It is difficult to share the president´s optimism, particularly in the face of hardened stand of leaders of Niger Delta militants. An oil facility belonging to Shell was reportedly destroyed even as the president was unveiling the amnesty package. Spokesperson for MEND played down the amnesty issue, preferring to wait for what Yar´ Adua has to offer. The organisation emphasised that its senior commanders, Farah Dagogo, Boyloaf and Soboma George did not participate in the talks with government. This seems to be a subtle way of questioning the credibility of the reported meeting. Asari-Dokubo, leader of a prominent activist group in the region was even more categorical about his group´s contempt for the amnesty. He said ”it is the people of Niger Delta that ought to offer amnesty to the Federal Government of Nigeria for years of occupation, environmental degradation and other economic hardship that had brought poverty to the entire Niger Delta.” Asari-Dokubo said only those whose means of livelihood have been severely affected by the Joint Task Force´s offensive would accept the amnesty. ”Those of us who are committed to the genuine struggle for resource control and greater participation of our people in the oil industry will never accept any form of amnesty from the Federal Republic of Nigeria. What we want is a Sovereign National Conference, a level playing field.” Asari-Dokubo´s statement is a strong commentary on the likely fate of government´s amnesty.
Events in the days ahead will be crucial to assessing what lies ahead for the country. Government is unlikely to be receptive to Asari-Dokubo´s suggestions, if only because it is dictatorial and likely to be seen as a futuristic suggestion. It is therefore realistic to expect a nation-threatening scenario. This is a decisive moment for the country, as failure to get it right spells a grounding of developmental activities, some of which are already manifest. Oil production and consequently revenue have declined; people are out of work; refineries are shut down, implying scarcity and high prices of petroleum products in the near future. Reduced spending power is being complicated by the global economic crisis. There is massive disruption of electricity generation and distribution machinery, a factor that has more or less determined the failure of government´s plan to attain 6,000 megawatts by December. Efficient power generation is key to Yar´Adua´s seven point agenda. The entire agenda is threatened by the situation in the Niger Delta. Statesman Dafinone advocates more dialogue on the Niger Delta, but Reverend Father Mathew Kukah of the Catholic Secretariat believes dialogue is no longer necessary to deal with the criminal elements. President Yar´Adua therefore has great challenge of keeping this country as one, and as a respected member of the comity of nations. Time is not on his side.
Kunle Sanyaolu
Fuente: Kunle Sanyaolu, The Guardian news
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